Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 79230.693231 83670.707609 88110.435390 92879.773662 97854.960923 102888.573326 108362.973910
2025-01-12 71335.237039 78089.105008 85033.932724 92698.757261 100910.745590 109434.764090 118941.265756
2025-01-19 65642.402823 73943.436456 82670.042282 92507.167474 103266.343494 114655.223008 127600.694754
2025-01-26 62529.448151 72119.854130 82386.619860 94160.612285 107254.191610 121332.628947 137578.221726
2025-02-02 60041.809056 70694.718885 82280.483172 95765.824857 110977.816765 127553.114796 146925.000629
2025-02-09 57416.703190 68893.932956 81557.375608 96496.681254 113566.341184 132388.451716 154636.658984
2025-02-16 54617.377366 66711.120191 80236.279895 96393.342833 115074.938311 135901.361924 160775.207331
2025-02-23 52486.454096 65169.368241 79530.760027 96884.439462 117167.411360 140004.175234 167534.687369
2025-03-02 50334.083425 63486.768184 78557.722228 96967.862667 118706.042265 143410.074885 173452.640413
2025-03-09 49011.062049 62713.389576 78584.884843 98165.185080 121498.856079 148238.887013 181012.525429
2025-03-16 46901.059997 60899.337230 77292.787750 97719.771411 122288.966719 150681.972842 185754.067868
2025-03-23 45914.960952 60402.995433 77536.592013 99075.149926 125193.642349 155600.003872 193416.137454
2025-03-30 44678.618853 59574.449733 77368.347336 99940.239333 127540.715520 159913.623170 200454.729206
2025-04-06 43105.305864 58270.739306 76572.516147 100001.810290 128891.748455 163032.060824 206082.622836
2025-04-13 41528.908002 56903.984735 75645.763318 99853.787135 129948.579751 165772.385513 211248.377310
2025-04-20 40972.404834 56807.277258 76278.605323 101624.442929 133356.385907 171365.988670 219893.569087
2025-04-27 40428.036211 56697.935281 76873.926702 103333.993784 136685.979463 176876.375621 228469.647785
2025-05-04 39493.746285 56045.339229 76749.792975 104111.613640 138839.524017 180944.162935 235295.759493
2025-05-11 38215.683073 54898.345377 75954.837466 104001.886407 139852.641836 183590.499882 240370.665762
2025-05-18 37279.248375 54171.655890 75672.998037 104523.996577 141646.412757 187198.460639 246644.152742
2025-05-25 36206.013098 53226.956989 75076.638720 104612.686469 142868.576383 190083.626594 252021.827282
2025-06-01 35677.045607 52997.524745 75400.919360 105885.408536 145601.886170 194870.817059 259801.523445
2025-06-08 34463.716342 51798.726267 74412.904049 105411.967899 146064.199537 196781.968357 263964.822212